Inevitable—Really?

There’s not much the MSM can do any more to influence the outcome because of the proliferation of other source of news—except affect the the idea of electability and inevitability.

We’ve talked before about the fact that people like to vote for a winner, and that people sometimes rank that quality higher than I believe they should—especially when it comes to Third Party Candidates.

This year, the MSM have acted as if Sen. Obama has won the election since the last debate—even though most claim Sen. McCain won the debate—and have used poll numbers and coverage to reflect it.

Some say that the MSM is blatantly biased.  I believe they’re biased, but I also believe that when a politician is doing well, the coverage is better than when they’re doing poorly.

President Bush

Take, for instance, the time period after 9/11 or after our first attack in Afghanistan.  President Bush’s approval ratings were through the roof, and coverage was extremely positive.  Everyone liked the President, and it showed.

As poll numbers dropped for him, the coverage changed as well.

There is a natural flow to coverage, and it follows how well a person is doing.  When a person is doing poorly, it’s easier to attack them.

Herd Mentality

I believe that journalists are people too.  I know, that deserved to be a bumper sticker.

What I mean is that just like people like to vote for the winner, people like to be saying the same things as everyone else.  It’s like we’re all in high school, and there’s a popular guy/girl that everyone likes.  No one likes to be the geek that’s all by themselves talking about how the popular guy still picks his nose.

Same thing here.  Journalists cover news based on how the public feels about the candidate—to a point.

The Caveat

The only place where this changes is when there’s a scoop.  Something that’s game changing that just has to come out—or someone else will get it out.  And this happens more often than not because of the way the landscape has changed with the Internet.

However, this doesn’t guarantee coverage, simply because if you’re inclined to support a candidate, you’re tempted to hide the damaging evidence if you can, or blunt the impact.

Is Sen. Obama inevitable?

We’re admonished in the Gospels of the man that built a bunch of barns to store more grain, and went to sleep at night to hear God say, “You fool.  Tonight your life will be required from you.”

Not to say that Sen. Obama is going to die—although considerable text has been spent contemplating Sen. McCain’s possible death—but that nothing is certain except that God is in control.

Some polls have them tied.  Some polls have weird samples.  And there’s really only one poll that counts.

And even that is subject to the whole question of whether he’s a Natural Born Citizen.