MInTheGap

Standing in the Gap in a Society that's Warring with God.

What’s Up With the Polls?

October 17th, 2008 Visited 1699 times, 2 so far today

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Last night I opened up the Drudge Report to find a crazy big red headline:

GALLUP SHOCK:  49 OBAMA, 47 MCCAIN WITH LIKELY VOTERS

Now, Rush Limbaugh has been saying for quite some time that the polls would get closer near the end because the race really is closer, but it’s only near the end that pollsters actually want to be closest to being right—because they want business.

The only thing I’ve read to explain the discrepancy is the fact that pollsters are having trouble this year trying to gauge just how the electorate has changed and how their models reflect likely voter turn out.  The Gallup poll mentioned above has the traditional models, while some of the models predicting an Obama landslide are skewing more Democrat than Republican.

Zogby says that Sen. Obama has not sealed the deal, and it’s still anyone’s race.

Another interesting poll brought to my attention was this one:

When given a choice about how government should address the numerous economic difficulties facing today’s consumer, Americans overwhelmingly—by 84% to 13%—prefer that the government focus on improving overall economic conditions and the jobs situation in the United States as opposed to taking steps to distribute wealth more evenly among Americans. [Hat Tip: Say Anything]

Taken in June by Gallup, this says to me that if Sen. McCain could really make the argument about wealth redistribution stick, he would win this thing hands down.

Too bad we have so many voting because of things other than policy.

Comments

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  • Rachel says on: October 17, 2008 at 5:41 pm

     

    I’ve always thought the polls were skewed to reflect the bias of the media. I think we won’t know the full force of the American vote until the morning of November 5th.

    Rachels last blog post..My Total Money Makeover: Preliminary Thoughts

  • Claudia says on: October 17, 2008 at 6:58 pm

     

    Forget about the so-called October surprise. I’m hoping for a November surprise!

    Claudias last blog post..A Life of Doing: Do the Right Thing

  • Holly says on: October 18, 2008 at 9:41 am

     

    I don’t know…

    Hanity says to listen to Zogby and Rasmussen, and they have been in the 3-5 point range for the last several weeks.

    Rush and Sean both say that the polls giving Obama a crazy lead are weighted up to 25 percent in Obama’s favor, meaning they poll more Democrats than Republicans.

    Even those “undecided voter” groups they show after the debates? Yes, largely Democratic, just undecided in this election.

    I don’t understand that, at all, UNLESS ONE IS TRYING TO SKEW THE POLLS and discourage people. It does have a discouraging psychological effect, on the electorate and on the candidates. I believe that the candidates have their own internal polling, though, and that is probably why you hear Obama saying things like “Don’t underestimate our ability to mess it up!” in the last few days.

    BTW – my favorite Biden gaffe has been Joe’s Three Letter Word – J-O-B-S mistake. 🙂 Too fun!

    Hollys last blog post..Tonight’s conversation while I got the drinks ready for supper:

  • Jenna says on: October 18, 2008 at 10:53 am

     

    Yeah Holly, I got a real good laugh about Mr. Biden’s three-letter word also. That was just hilarious. What, is someone going to ask him to spell ‘potato’ next? lol

    Jennas last blog post..House Happenings

  • Holly says on: October 18, 2008 at 3:34 pm

     

    Hey Jenna –

    So good to see you again. Miss you! (())

    Hollys last blog post..Tonight’s conversation while I got the drinks ready for supper:

MInTheGap

Standing in the Gap in a Society that's Warring with God.

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